Perception & Processing
Predictive Coding in Autism
The brain is a prediction machine. Every moment, it generates models about what will happen next and compares them with incoming reality. Neuroscience calls this process Predictive Coding. When the prediction matches, everything runs automatically. When reality deviates, a prediction error occurs, an error signal that demands attention and energy.
In autistic brains, this system is calibrated differently. Research from the Bayesian Brain framework (Van de Cruys et al., 2014; Pellicano & Burr, 2012) shows that autistic brains weight sensory inputs more heavily than stored predictions. They filter less, register more, process at higher resolution. This explains why small everyday changes can trigger massive stress, why routines are neurologically necessary, and why unpredictable situations push autistic nervous systems to their capacity limits faster.
The following conversations are taken directly from the app – uncut and unedited.
Why small changes cause massive stress
A rearranged shelf in the supermarket. A different route to work. For neurotypical brains, these are minor details processed automatically. For autistic brains, every deviation from the expected pattern generates an alarm signal that requires active recalculation.
User question
Small everyday changes stress me enormously - a different route to work, a rearranged shelf in the supermarket. Why do I react so strongly to things others don't even notice?
Autistic Mirror (Inner View)
This is Predictive Coding. Your brain constantly compares expectations with what actually happens. In autistic brains, this mechanism is calibrated more precisely - small deviations from the expected pattern generate a strong prediction error.
When the shelf in the supermarket is rearranged, your brain reports: "Error! Yoghurt should be at coordinates X but is at Y." This prediction error is not a small signal but an alarm. Your brain now has to recalculate its entire internal model of the supermarket.
The different route to work activates the same mechanism. Your brain has stored the route as a sequence - any deviation requires active recalculation instead of automatic navigation. This costs massive cognitive energy.
Neurotypical brains weight predictions more heavily than sensory inputs. They "smooth out" small deviations. Your brain weights actual sensory information more heavily - every change is processed at full resolution.
This is not overreacting. It is a different neurological priority setting: precision over flexibility.
This response is from Autistic Mirror. You can ask your own questions - about your situation.
What Predictive Coding has to do with autism
Predictive Coding is not an autism-specific concept. It describes a fundamental processing mechanism of all brains. The difference lies in calibration: how strongly the brain trusts its own predictions versus current sensory data.
User question
What is Predictive Coding and what does it have to do with autism?
Autistic Mirror (Inner View)
Predictive Coding is how your brain works: it constantly creates predictions about the world and compares them with what actually happens. Like a continuously running simulation programme.
Example: before you open a door, your brain already "knows" how heavy it is, what sound it makes, what the room behind it looks like. When reality deviates (door sticks, room has been rearranged), a prediction error occurs - an error signal.
In autistic brains, the balance is set differently. Neurotypical brains trust their predictions more than actual sensory impressions. They ignore small deviations and stick to the expected model. Autistic brains weight the real sensory data more heavily. Every deviation is registered and processed.
This explains many autistic experiences:
- Changes are exhausting (every prediction error must be processed)
- Routines are important (they minimise prediction errors)
- Details stand out (they are not filtered away)
- Unpredictable situations exhaust quickly
- Patterns and systems are calming (they reduce uncertainty)
It is not "worse" processing - it is more precise processing. You see the world as it is, not as your brain expects it to be.
Why preparation is not anxiety
Autistic people often need significantly more preparation for new situations than neurotypical people. This is frequently interpreted as anxiety or lack of flexibility. The neurological explanation is different: without a pre-built internal model, every stimulus hits a system that processes at full resolution unfiltered.
User question
Why do I need so much preparation for new situations while others just go for it?
Autistic Mirror (Inner View)
This is a combination of Predictive Coding and Monotropism. Monotropism means that autistic attention focuses intensely on one thing rather than spreading out.
In new situations, your brain cannot make reliable predictions - everything is a potential prediction error. Without preparation, your brain has to process every single stimulus in real time: What is the room like? Who is there? What is expected? Which unwritten rules apply?
Neurotypical brains use rough categories: "This is a party, I roughly know how parties work." They filter out details and improvise where there are gaps. Your monotropic brain processes every detail individually and cannot simply overlay a rough template.
Preparation creates an internal model. You gather information: location, schedule, people, expectations. This builds a simulation that minimises prediction errors. This is not anxiety - it is efficient resource management.
Without this preparation, you enter the situation with an open processing channel. Every stimulus arrives unfiltered. This quickly leads to overload - when more information comes in than your system can process.
"Just going for it" only works with shallow processing. Your depth processing needs structure.
Why every situation feels like the first time
Many autistic people describe the feeling that even familiar situations never truly feel familiar. Tuesday's meeting is not "a meeting" but a completely new sensory experience that must be processed in real time.
User question
My brain processes every situation as if it were the first time. Is there a neurological explanation?
Autistic Mirror (Inner View)
This is Monotropism in combination with how your Predictive Coding works.
Neurotypical brains store situations as abstract categories: "meeting", "family gathering", "shopping". The next similar situation activates the category and details are filled in. This saves energy.
Your monotropic brain stores every situation in full detail depth. Not "a meeting" but "meeting on 15 March, room 204, with person A and B, light from the left, chair squeaks, projector hums". This precise storage makes retrieval harder - the new situation never matches exactly.
Additionally, your Predictive Coding weights current sensory data more heavily than stored patterns. Even when your brain recognises "this is similar to last time", it still processes every current stimulus anew rather than relying on the memory.
This is also why routines are so important. The more identical the repetition, the more likely your brain can access stored patterns. Small variations (different room, different time) are enough to switch the entire process to "reprocessing".
This first-time feeling is neurologically real - not lack of experience or poor memory. Your brain prioritises precision over efficiency.
Autistic Mirror explains autistic neurology individually, applied to your situation. Whether for yourself, as a parent, or as a professional.
